Democrat Cheri Beasley and Republican Ted Budd face similar strategic decisions in what the latest polling shows is a tight race to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina.
Both campaigns have been left to weigh whether a president — one present, one past — is a help or hindrance as Joe Biden is dogged by Americans’ frustration over inflation, and Donald Trump’s legal issues mount.
“Certainly, Budd has been much more willing to align himself with Trump than Beasley has been willing to align herself closely with Biden,” said Wake Forest University political science professor John Dinan. “In view of Biden’s relatively low approval ratings for much of this year, it is understandable why Beasley would keep some distance from Biden.”
As a relentless stream of television ads backing or bashing the Democratic and GOP nominees floods the airways, Libertarian Shannon Bray and the Green Party’s Matthew Hoh also are looking to get the attention of North Carolina’s more than 7 million registered voters.
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Budd’s campaign has been unrelenting in its efforts to link Beasley, the former chief justice of the N.C. Supreme Court, to the president.
“I want to help make life better for North Carolinians and Cheri Beasley is promoting Joe Biden policies that have created out-of-control inflation and sent us into a recession,” Budd said in a statement to the Journal.
Biden has pushed back on such criticism by noting that the U.S. is experiencing the impact of a global recession, but Budd’s campaign is banking on the hope that undecided voters will take out their financial frustration on Democrats because they control the White House and Congress.
Historically, the party controlling the White House typically loses House and Senate seats in mid-term elections.
A recent Budd television ad suggested that Biden would never come to North Carolina to campaign for Beasley because she knows he’d do her more harm than good.
That’s not the case, insisted Beasley spokeswoman Kelci Hobson.
“Cheri has been clear that President Biden is welcome to come to North Carolina,” Hobson said.
Even so, keeping some distance from Biden in the current political climate is likely a sound strategy, Dinan said.
“Budd,” he added, “faces a more difficult calculation.”
Framing the race
Budd, a third-term congressman from Advance who owns a gun store and shooting range, turned aside former Gov. Pat McCrory and former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker in May’s GOP primary after being endorsed by Trump.
The former president’s backing pushed Budd past the two more well-known candidates, and he will need broad support from pro-Trump voters to win in November, Dinan noted.
“At the same time, the conventional understanding is that Republican Senate and House candidates this year will do better if the election is framed primarily as a referendum on Biden’s presidency,” he explained. “Trump’s prominence tends to turn the 2022 election into a choice between whether voters prefer Biden or Trump, and it is much more uncertain whether that works in Republicans’ favor.”
Trump’s visibility in the Budd campaign did diminish significantly after the primary. That changed last week when Trump announced he would stump for Budd at a rally in Wilmington this Friday.
For his part, Budd insists that tying Beasley to Biden while accepting Trump’s active support will create no inconsistency in messaging.
“President Trump won North Carolina twice and we are thrilled he’s heading back to our great state to get folks fired up as our campaign accelerates into the final stretch,” Budd said in a statement. “We also welcome Joe Biden to come campaign for Cheri Beasley to personally and publicly thank her for supporting his disastrous economic policies.”
Budd has been less visible since the primary, prompting concern from some Republicans who worry that Beasley picked up support from independent voters in the vacuum. McCrory, his primary opponent, suggested to Reuters that Budd was running a “risk averse” campaign.
Beasley, meanwhile, has been taking her message beyond the usual Democratic urban strongholds and into rural areas of North Carolina often ignored by statewide candidates from her party.
“Cheri is focused on meeting voters where they are and sharing her winning message statewide, and she’s heard from voters statewide that they are tired of Washington politicians like Congressman Budd,” said Hobson, Beasley’s spokesperson. “Voters know that in the Senate she will put people first and do what is best for North Carolinians.”
The “people first” reference contrasts Trump’s “America first” rallying cry, which Budd has continued to employ consistently since the primary even when not referencing the former president specifically.
Beasley is looking to syphon off enough traditionally Republican rural votes to tip the balance her way in a close race. Suburban women also are expected to play an important role, particularly after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to an abortion.
Budd announced last week he supports a proposal by Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina for a national abortion ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
After trailing early, Beasley has pulled even with Budd in the latest polling in a race that has the potential to decide which party controls the now evenly divided Senate (with Vice President Kamala Harris the deciding vote in ties).
Beasley has a significant lead in fundraising with $16 million as of mid-July compared to $6.4 million for Budd. Beasley reported having $4.8 million in cash on hand, while Budd’s campaign said it had about $1.8 million.
But given the stakes, much of the spending on the race will come from outside the campaigns.
Other candidates
Libertarian candidate Shannon Bray of Apex is a Navy veteran who now works for the U.S. Department of Defense.
Bray says he wants to limit U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, improve data privacy, use technology to secure the border rather than a wall, do more to help veterans and remove “government meddling” in healthcare.
The Green Party’s Matthew Hoh served in the Marine Corps and worked in the U.S. State Department.
He says he wants to reform “the corrupt political system (that) is squeezing all the wealth to the top and leaving working people to struggle.”