Politics gears up for momentous 2024
Nov. 25—Key 2024 election dates Here are some key dates for the 2024 election season: —Dec. 4 — Candidate filing starts for statewide, congressional, judicial and county 2024 elections. —Dec. 15 — Candidate filing concludes for statewide, congressional, judicial and county 2024 elections. —Feb. 9 — Deadline to register to vote on primary election day. —Feb. 15 — Early voting begins for primary elections. —March 2 — Early voting ends for party primaries. —March 5 — Primary election day. —March 15 — Canvass of primary election results. —May 14 — Runoff primary if needed. —July 5 — Candidate filing begins for Archdale and Trinity municipal elections. —July 19 — Candidate filing concludes for Archdale and Trinity municipal elections. —Oct. 11 — Deadline to register to vote on Election Day. —Oct. 17 — Early voting starts for the general election. —Nov. 1 — Early voting ends for the general election. —Nov. 5 — Election Day. —Nov. 15 — Canvass of general election results.
HIGH POINT — North Carolina should take center stage again during 2024 in the race for the White House, including all the down-ballot implications for outcomes of local contests.
Next year promises to be a momentous one in state politics as voters will pick a new governor, decide a host of other statewide races, select 14 congressional representatives, choose 170 members of the N.C. General Assembly and fill local offices such as school boards and county boards of commissioners.
But the marquee race remains the contest for North Carolina's 16 Electoral College votes in the presidential campaign.
The Tarheel State has served as a possible swing state in presidential contests dating back to 2008 when Democratic nominee Barack Obama edged out Republican nominee John McCain in North Carolina. Obama's win marked the first time a Democratic presidential nominee had carried North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Republican presidential nominees have carried North Carolina since Obama's triumph 15 years ago, though the races have been competitive. Wake Forest University Political Science Professor John Dinan said North Carolina should serve as a battleground state in 2024.
"North Carolina has clearly joined the ranks of states that are competitive in presidential elections," Dinan told The High Point Enterprise. "it is now one of about six to eight states that will attract significant advertising from presidential candidates in both parties."
The five most competitive presidential battleground swing states are projected to be Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Dinan said.
"North Carolina is in the next group of states that are very much winnable by either party," the professor said. "Although Republicans have a modest advantage in winning North Carolina's electoral votes, in a good year for Democrats it is possible for a Democratic candidate to win the state, as happened in 2008."
The missing component from North Carolina's 2024 campaign season is the lack of a U.S. Senate race. The 2024 campaign season is what's referred to as a "blue moon" election because the expiring terms of the two U.S. senators in North Carolina don't coincide with the election year.
"Although North Carolina will not have a U.S. Senate race in 2024, it will feature an impressive number of open-seat Council of State races and in particular will feature highly competitive campaigns for governor and attorney general," Dinan said.
The race for the state's highest office will be for an open seat since Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is term-limited after winning two consecutive four-year terms.
If there's a heavy turnout in 2024 for contests such as the presidency and governorship, it could have a political trickle-down effect on local races. Candidates for local offices such as school boards or county boards of commissioners could become buffeted by higher-profile contests, Dinan told The Enterprise.
"Their electoral fate will be determined not so much by anything that they do in their campaign but rather by how well their party's candidate fares in the presidential election and how well their party does in turning out the vote for the presidential election," the professor said. "The outcome of the presidential election in North Carolina will go a long way toward determining the outcome of a number of contests at the state and local level."
In terms of voter registration, going into 2024 Republicans remain buoyed by a noticeable shift in North Carolina since former president Donald Trump announced his initial campaign for the White House in 2015.
The state has recorded a net increase of almost 1 million voters since October 2015, according to a report earlier this month in N.C. Newsline. During the past eight years since Trump entered the presidential ring, Republicans have gained 264,000 registered voters while Democrats have lost a net of 208,000 registered voters in North Carolina.
By far the biggest shift in state voter registration has been the rush to become unaffiliated. The number of unaffiliated voters has increased by 884,000 in the past eight years to 2.67 million, according to N.C. Newsline, meaning unaffiliated voters represent the largest bloc of voters in the state.
pjohnson@hpenews.com — 336-888-3528 — @HPEpaul
