On election night, some will celebrate, others cringe

Nov. 5—HIGH POINT — Area political scientists say that the motivation of partisan voters, choices made by unaffiliated voters and campaign topics that end up most important in the minds of people, will tilt the balance on Tuesday, Election Day.

One factor that will determine outcomes centers on the relative enthusiasm level of voters backing Republican or Democratic candidates, John Dinan, professor of political science at Wake Forest University, told The High Point Enterprise. Voter turnout in midterms traditionally is lower than in presidential elections.

"This makes it all the more important for both parties to motivate their voters to go to the polls, and the party that is more successful in doing this will have a big advantage." Dinan said.

Unaffiliated voters, who became the largest voting block in North Carolina this past March, also will play a critical role determining whether Republicans or Democrats fare better in the general election.

"So a lot of attention will naturally be paid in the lead-up to Election Day on whether unaffiliated voters are breaking heavily toward one party," Dinan said. "Finally, events and developments in the final week of the campaign can shift voters' focus in such a way as to put the spotlight on certain issues, such as inflation, the economy, crime, abortion rights or some other issue."

The outcome could have far-reaching implications for political power in North Carolina, said Martin Kifer, chairman of the Political Science Department at High Point University.

Republican state legislative candidates are seeking to win enough seats in N.C. General Assembly contests to establish veto-proof supermajorities in the House and Senate. GOP candidates need to pick up a net gain of two seats in the Senate and three seats in the House to do that.

"Overriding the governor's veto is potentially the biggest impact that could happen in state politics," Kifer said.

The midterm also could shift the balance of power on the N.C. Supreme Court, he said. Democrats currently hold a 4-3 edge on the court, but both seats that are on the ballot are held by Democratic justices. Republicans need to flip only one to take control.

"It's potentially important on how the court will rule on issues like redistricting and abortion rights," Kifer said. "Having a flip in the court might make some relatively significant changes across several different domains."

pjohnson@hpenews.com — 336-888-3528 — @HPEpaul